The statistic on the red envelopes

Discussion in 'Guides' started by Raisenangel, Jan 26, 2019.

  1. Raisenangel
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    Raisenangel Member

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    Hi Guys - first guide here on the forums, so any feedback would be lovely :D

    I have doing the event calculated on the benefits of red envelopes, to help you with your doubt on whether to sell, buy or collect them. ~f17
    To those who have trouble reading the tabels, i will explain them under the picture!

    (Ppl have been so lovely to share their benefits of the envelopes with me in the comments. Due to that i will keep updating this thread everyday so that we can a more precise result of these chance tabels :love: Keep sharing your results!)


    The data of the first to boxes are now made from the benefits of 4477 envelopes!
    upload_2019-2-9_0-30-25.png

    As you can se above, there a 83,2% chance that you will get mesos everytime you open an envelope. That means that about 832 out of 1000 envelopes will have mesos in them. About 167 of them will have nx.

    upload_2019-2-9_0-31-11.png

    122 out of 1000 would be 100nx, 27 out of 1000 would be 250nx and 19 out of 1000 would be 5.000nx.. etc, etc.. The chance of getting 25.000 mesos is the biggest with 206 out of 1000 and the chance of getting 5000nx is the smallest. I must say that the chance of 25.000 or 50.000 keeps shifting.. This means that the chance of getting 25.000 and 50.000 is almost the same.

    This data below is now made from the benefits of 13.777 envelopes! ~f11
    upload_2019-2-9_0-33-30.png

    The tabel above tell you how much you earn pr envelope on average. So each time you open one, you would get around 110nx or 177.533 mesos.

    For me after opening 1000 envelopes, i got 198.490.000 mesos and 123.100nx.
    For that i could by 39 (almost 40) APR, which sells for around 12M each and earn 468M mesos. I could buy 143 gachapon tickets and something crazy out of that.
    But for selling the red envelopes you get around 65.000 mesos for each. That would give me 650M mesos.

    So if you're just looking for mesos, i would recemend selling them. But if you're looking to be lucky at the gachapon, you could end up with alot more ~f17

    The decision is up to you..

    Hope you like this thread! let me know in the comments ~f15 I will try to answer any questions, this may bring you ~f12

    Ps: sorry for any misspelling.

    These was the first results i got when i only had the results from 1000 envelopes.. It's just to show you how much difference it can make to get alot more data to use ~f17
    upload_2019-1-26_2-19-38.png
    upload_2019-1-26_2-24-40.png
    upload_2019-1-29_21-52-56.png


    The credit goes to the ppl below for sharing their results! ^^ I couldn't have made it so far without your results!
    upload_2019-1-29_22-44-11.png upload_2019-1-29_22-44-16.png upload_2019-1-29_22-44-19.png
     

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    Last edited: Feb 8, 2019
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  2. Starleaf
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    Starleaf Donator

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    How did you only get 19mil mesos? I get like 200mil every time I open 1000.
     
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  3. Raisenangel
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    Raisenangel Member

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    Sorry! forgot a 0 ~f6 gonna fix it right away ~f2
     
  4. Joez
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    Joez Well-Known Member

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    i average <10k nx per 100 :'(

    addit: 1000 seems like a fairly small sample size to assess the probability of 5k / 5m if they're expected to be 1-2% :p
     
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  5. VitaLemonade
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    1300 envelopes
    250m
    147k nx
     
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  6. Raisenangel
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    Since everyone occur at least 20 times and then it has been consistent throughout the experiment with the output, i will say the procentance wont shift too much even with 1000 or 9000 envelopes more ^_^' I've been sick the last couple of day, but i will ofc keep proceed with the experiment until the end of the event :D
     
  7. Raisenangel
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    Raisenangel Member

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    if i may, i would like to take your results into my calculations? :)
     
  8. Venom
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    I recorded 7k envelopes so far.

    [​IMG]

    you can use it or add it to the post if you wish.
     
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  9. Myoni
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    upload_2019-1-28_19-29-33.png
    bleh
     
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  10. VitaLemonade
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    Sure. I also opened another 1000 envelopes.
    167m + 108100 nx
     
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